Base metal: domestic market outperforms overseas market; polysilicon up 4.25%, alumina up nearly 3%; SHFE gold leads losses [[SMM] Midday Review]

SMM May 9 News:

Metal Market:

As of the midday close, domestic base metals generally rose, with SHFE aluminum up 0.54%. SHFE copper, SHFE lead, and SHFE zinc all rose by less than 0.3%. SHFE nickel fell 0.21%, and SHFE tin dropped 0.26%.

In addition, alumina rose 2.92%, lithium carbonate fell 0.88%, silicon metal rose 0.24%, and polysilicon surged 4.25%.

The ferrous metals series all fell, with iron ore and stainless steel dropping slightly. Rebar fell 1.14%, and HRC declined 0.78%. In the coking coal and coke sector: coking coal fell 1.18%, and coke dropped 1.29%.

In the overseas metal market, as of 11:45 a.m., LME base metals generally fell. LME tin dropped 0.57%, while LME zinc rose 0.65%. LME lead increased 0.8%, LME copper fell 0.31%, and LME aluminum declined slightly. LME nickel fell 0.19%.

In the precious metals sector, as of 11:45 a.m., COMEX gold rose 0.24%, and COMEX silver fell 0.11%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 2.02%, and SHFE silver dropped 0.34%. Data released by the World Gold Council (WGC) showed that in April, global gold ETFs saw inflows of $11 billion, marking the fifth consecutive month of net inflows. Supported by rising gold prices and sustained capital inflows, the assets under management (AUM) of global gold ETFs reached another month-end high of $379 billion. Meanwhile, gold holdings surged by 115 mt to 3,561 mt, the highest level since August 2022, but still 10% below the month-end peak of 3,915 mt reached in October 2020.

As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for the European container shipping index rose 0.48% to 1,266 points.

As of 11:45 a.m. on May 9, the midday futures market movements for some contracts were as follows:

》SMM Metal Spot Prices on May 9

Spot and Fundamentals

Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was quoted at a premium of 90 yuan/mt to a premium of 220 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average premium of 155 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 30 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 40 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 78,315 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper remained unchanged at 78,200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Inventories in Guangdong have declined for three consecutive days, primarily due to reduced arrivals... 》Click for details

Macro Front

Domestic Aspect:

[General Administration of Customs: China's Foreign Trade in Goods Grew 2.4% in the First Four Months, with Increased Exports of Integrated Circuits and Automobiles] According to customs statistics, in the first four months of 2025, China's total foreign trade in goods reached 14.14 trillion yuan, up 2.4% year-on-year (YoY, the same hereinafter).Among them, exports reached RMB 8.39 trillion, up 7.5%; imports amounted to RMB 5.75 trillion, down 4.2%. In April, the total value of China's foreign trade in goods was RMB 3.84 trillion, up 5.6%. Among them, exports were RMB 2.27 trillion, up 9.3%; imports were RMB 1.57 trillion, up 0.8%. In the first four months, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached RMB 5.04 trillion, up 9.5%, accounting for 60.1% of China's total export value. Among them, automatic data processing equipment and its parts were worth RMB 458.71 billion, up 5.6%; integrated circuits were worth RMB 405.15 billion, up 14.7%; and automobiles were worth RMB 264.98 billion, up 4%. According to CCTV News, Lv Daliang, Director of the Department of Statistics and Analysis at the General Administration of Customs, said: Since the beginning of this year, various regions and departments have worked together to effectively respond to external shocks, promoting a sustained rebound and improvement in China's economy, with foreign trade maintaining a steady growth trend. The growth rate of imports and exports in April accelerated by 4.3 percentage points compared to Q1, with export growth expanding and imports turning from decline to increase, demonstrating strong resilience. 》Click to view details

【China's E-commerce Logistics Index Continued to Rise in April, Showing Good Momentum】The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) announced today (May 9) China's E-commerce Logistics Index for April. Driven by various policies aimed at stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, and promoting consumption, China's E-commerce Logistics Index continued to rise in April, with all major sub-indices showing a MoM rebound, indicating a good growth momentum in online consumption. China's E-commerce Logistics Index for April was 111.1 points, up 1.1 points MoM. All major sub-indices increased compared to the previous month.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted RMB 77 billion in 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As there were no 7-day reverse repos maturing today, a net injection of RMB 77 billion was achieved.

►The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market on May 9 was RMB 7.2095 per US dollar.

US dollar:

As of 11:45, the US dollar index was up 0.02%, at 100.65. The market is paying attention to speeches by several US Fed officials later in the day to gain further insights into the economic and policy paths of the US Fed. Previously, the US Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and warned of rising risks of inflation and unemployment.

Data:

Today, data such as Switzerland's Q2 Consumer Confidence Index (seasonally adjusted), China's M2 money supply YoY for April, China's Total Social Financing (YTD) for April, China's New RMB Loans (YTD) for April, Canada's Change in Employment for April, and Canada's Unemployment Rate for April will be released.

Also worth noting: Vice Premier of the State Council He Lifeng visited Switzerland from May 9 to 12, holding talks with Swiss leaders and relevant parties. During his visit, as the Chinese head of the China-US economic and trade negotiations, Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold talks with the US head, US Treasury Secretary Bessent. In addition, speeches by Bank of England Governor Bailey, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams (delivering a keynote speech), Fed Governor Kugler, 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, Fed Governor Barr, and FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams and Fed Governor Waller are also worth following.

Crude Oil:

As of 11:45, crude oil futures rose, with US oil up 0.4% and Brent oil up 0.4%. The UK announced a breakthrough trade agreement with the US, easing market concerns over trade tensions. Additionally, the US tightening sanctions on Iran may limit supply and push up oil prices. OPEC's plan to increase production may continue to put pressure on oil prices. A survey released on Thursday showed that OPEC's oil production slightly declined in April, as production drops in Libya, Venezuela, and Iraq outweighed planned increases. (Webstock Inc.)

Spot Market Overview:

►The price spread between futures contracts continues to widen, downstream restocking sentiment remains low, and spot premiums have significantly declined. [SMM South China Spot Copper]

►Some suppliers are dumping goods at low prices, causing a sharp drop in spot premiums and discounts. [SMM North China Spot Copper]

►[SMM Analysis] With weakening fundamentals, iron ore is expected to remain in the doldrums next week.

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